ABPmer was commissioned by Arup and its client Network Rail to undertake wave modelling and multivariate analysis along the Dawlish Frontage, with focus on Marine Parade as part of the wider Exeter to Newton Abbot Resilience project.
A localised wave model, extending from Portland Bill to Start Point was created to generate a long term hindcast database of wave conditions along the Frontage. To account for climate change, three epochs were considered in the hindcast analysis (2015, 2065 and 2115).
The local hindcast was subject to multivariate extreme value analysis (EVA) which created a Monte Carlo dataset and derivation of Joint Exceedance Curves. These were transformed inshore to the toe of the structure for overtopping assessments supporting the detailed design.
We also undertook a detailed coastal process (morphological) assessment and developed a short-term plan for managing the beach in advance of the next investment programme.